Brent crude touched $119 a barrel on Thursday — up from $111 earlier in the week, according to the American Bazaar, and $115 just hours before — before settling around $107 on a brief easing of supply fears. The trajectory is what matters here.

Saudi petroleum officials have told the Wall Street Journal that internal projections show crude reaching $180 per barrel if energy disruptions persist past late April, according to the report published Wednesday. One Gulf-based energy trader was blunter: “I don’t think $150 is out of the question in another month. You start talking about June, I’ll give you $180.”

The math is straightforward. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil transits — has been effectively closed for 20 days. Insurance premiums for tankers have made commercial passage uneconomical. Goldman Sachs warned this week that “the persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100,” even in optimistic scenarios.

Brent has now risen five consecutive weeks. It traded at $72 a month ago. That is a roughly 49% increase in under four weeks, according to Fortune.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed Iranian warnings of $200 oil, but offered no ceiling of his own.

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