Russia was not in the room.

That is the defining fact of two days of talks between Ukrainian and American negotiators in Florida, which concluded Sunday with modest progress on humanitarian issues and a conspicuous void where Russian diplomats were expected to sit.

The meetings, held in Miami rather than the originally planned Abu Dhabi, produced what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called “signals” that a new prisoner-of-war exchange may be possible. For a war that has seen minimal diplomatic movement in recent months, even that qualified promise counts as progress.

“There are indications that further exchanges may take place, which would indeed be very good news and confirmation that diplomacy is working,” Zelensky said in his evening address. “We hope this will come to fruition.”

The delegations, and the absences

The US team was led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, whose presence underscores the extent to which the administration’s diplomatic efforts remain a family affair. The Ukrainian delegation included Rustem Umerov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, and Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Presidential Office.

Witkoff described the discussions as “constructive,” with talks “focused on narrowing and resolving remaining items to move closer to a comprehensive peace agreement.” Umerov said the teams had “made progress in aligning positions.”

Neither side specified what those remaining items were, or how they had been narrowed.

Russian representatives had been expected to attend. The last trilateral meeting — in Geneva on February 17–18 — produced no breakthroughs. A follow-up session scheduled for March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed after the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, plunging the Middle East into crisis and consuming Washington’s attention.

A war in the shadow of another war

The Iran conflict has reshaped the diplomatic landscape for Ukraine in ways that extend beyond scheduling logistics.

Washington has temporarily lifted some sanctions on Russian oil to compensate for supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war — a decision Zelensky implicitly criticized in his public remarks. Russia, he noted, has increased its oil sales and launched nearly 1,550 attack drones, more than 1,260 guided aerial bombs, and two missiles at Ukraine in the past week alone.

“Revenues give Russia a sense of impunity and the ability to continue the war,” Zelensky wrote on X. “Russia’s shadow fleet must not feel safe in European waters or anywhere else.”

The French Navy seized a Russian oil tanker in the western Mediterranean last week, with President Emmanuel Macron confirming it was part of Moscow’s sanctions-evading fleet. European countries have not followed Washington’s lead in easing restrictions.

What the talks achieved — and what they didn’t

A prisoner exchange, if it materializes, would be tangible. It would also be the bare minimum.

The fundamental disagreements remain untouched. Russia continues to insist it will not cede occupied Ukrainian territory. Ukraine continues to insist it will not accept a deal that formalizes those losses. The US-backed peace plan reportedly includes territorial concessions and a requirement for a presidential election in Ukraine — a condition complicated by Ukrainian law, which bars wartime voting.

Zelensky, whose term expired last year, has said he would be prepared to hold elections if the US secured a two-month ceasefire to allow preparations. His former top general, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now ambassador to Britain and a potential presidential contender, offered a blunter assessment in an article published Sunday: “What Ukraine needs is not time to prepare for elections, but a peace won through war.”

The war, now in its fifth year, grinds on. Four people were killed in Ukraine by Russian strikes on Saturday, according to Ukrainian officials, while two died in Russian border regions from Ukrainian shelling. The northern Ukrainian region of Chernihiv was left largely without power.

If a prisoner swap comes to pass, families will be reunited. The diplomats will call it progress. But the talks concluded without Russia at the table — and the key issue, as Zelensky put it, remains “how ready Russia is to move toward a real end to the war.”

On that question, Moscow’s absence spoke for itself.

Sources