S&P Global delivered a verdict on Masayoshi Son’s latest conviction play: the ratings agency cut SoftBank’s outlook from stable to negative, citing the $30 billion additional investment in OpenAI as a strain on both liquidity and asset quality.

The numbers are stark. SoftBank is seeking a record $40 billion bridge loan—its largest dollar-denominated borrowing ever—to fund an investment that will bring its total OpenAI stake to $64.6 billion and approximately 13% ownership. Upon completion, OpenAI will represent 30% of SoftBank’s investment portfolio, equal to its stake in Arm Holdings.

S&P called OpenAI one of SoftBank’s investments with the “weakest” credit quality. The ratings agency noted that the company’s AI bets—mostly fledgling startups and private companies—expose it to “significant AI innovation risk and fierce competition.” Unlisted shares will soar above 50% of SoftBank’s portfolio from an estimated 42% in December.

SoftBank’s financial policies cap loan-to-value at 25% under normal conditions, with an upper threshold of 35%. The new investment puts pressure on that ceiling.

Son remains undeterred. “AI is transforming the world at an unprecedented pace,” he said in a statement. “OpenAI is a clear leader, with world-class technology and an unparalleled global user base.”

The company has options. Bloomberg Intelligence notes that SoftBank could sell assets—including more than $10 billion in T-Mobile shares and listed tech stocks—to bring LTV back below 35%. An OpenAI IPO would help too, though timing remains uncertain.

But the core question persists: whether one investor’s conviction should concentrate this much capital in a single private company. SoftBank sold its entire Nvidia stake last year—over $5 billion—to fund this AI pivot. Its share price is now tethered to ChatGPT’s competitive position against Gemini and Claude.

Son has been right before. He was early to Alibaba and ByteDance. The question is whether being early matters when you’re this leveraged.

Sources